England's back-to-back wins in the Super Eights round at the ongoing Men's T20 World Cup 2026 helped them secure a semi-final spot for a record fifth consecutive time while Sri Lanka have failed to get there for five editions in a row post their title-winning 2014 campaign.
That leaves New Zealand and Pakistan in the hunt for the remaining semi-final spot from the group, and the Blackcaps have taken giant strides with a thumping 61-run win over Sri Lanka on Wednesday, their net run rate shooting up to +3.050.
Here are the possible scenarios for the two teams.
@B0$
England vs New Zealand, RPS Colombo, Feb 27
Sri Lanka vs Pakistan, Pallekele, Feb 28
@B1$
The Blackcaps will top the group with five points in this case and go through, making the final Group game between Sri Lanka and Pakistan immaterial.
@B2$
New Zealand would ideally want Sri Lanka to beat Pakistan on Saturday in this case, to progress through without worrying about the net run rate. The standings would then be as follows: England (4 points), New Zealand (3 points), Sri Lanka (2 points), Pakistan (1 point).
If Pakistan beat Sri Lanka, then they will be tied with New Zealand with three points apiece, bringing the NRR into the picture.
If England beat New Zealand by 50 runs on Friday, Pakistan would need to beat Sri Lanka by 20 runs to go past the Blackcaps' net run rate. (The average victory margin for sides batting first in Sri Lanka in the tournament so far is 62; 47 in matches involving two full-member teams)
If Pakistan bat second (considering the same 50-run margin for ENG vs NZ), they would need to complete the run-chase in roughly 17.5 overs. Any lesser margin will take New Zealand through.
(The above calculations have been made assuming a first-innings score of 170 in each case, which is the same as the average first-innings score in 16 matches in Sri Lanka in the tournament so far).
